Navigating the Bitcoin Halving: Insights into Crypto and Global Financial Dynamics
Highlights:
1. Bitcoin Halving Insights into Global Financial Dynamics: Bitcoin’s historical outperformance as the best-performing asset class in 9 out of 12 years, transitioning to the worst-performing asset class in the second year post-halving events. High correlation with the S&P 500 over a 1-year period, with Bitcoin exhibiting slightly negative correlations with the U.S. Dollar and crude oil prices. Declining volatility in Bitcoin’s price, indicating increased adoption by institutional investors and greater market efficiency.
2. Bitcoin ETFs Witness Strong Net Inflow: Ten launched Bitcoin ETFs collectively garnered a net inflow exceeding US$4.87 billion in just over a month, excluding Grayscale GBTC experiencing continuous outflows.
Standout performers include iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) by BlackRock and Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) by Fidelity.
3. BTC Ownership Gradually Decentralized: Exchanges like Binance, Bitfinex, and Coinbase hold over 8.8% of the total Bitcoin supply, with public companies and institutional funds also accumulating significant BTC holdings. Grayscale Bitcoin Trust stands as the largest holder with over 450,000 BTC.
4. Rising Crypto Adoption by Institutional Funds: Derivatives such as options gaining significant traction since 2Q2023, surpassing futures perpetual contracts in market activity. Increased adoption of crypto extending to institutional funds, contributing to positive trends in derivative market activities.
5. Optimizing Portfolio Performance with Bitcoin Allocation: Adding Bitcoin, even with single-digit allocation, greatly enhances the equity curve and risk-adjusted return of traditional portfolios, based on backtest results. Risk diversification through Bitcoin allocation enhances the Sharpe ratio of the portfolio, with a 5% allocation showing limited impact on portfolio volatility.
6. Crypto Regulation Formalized: Different attitudes towards cryptocurrencies globally, with countries like the United States, Canada, and Brazil providing a robust regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies. Hong Kong introduced cryptocurrency-friendly policies and regulations, signaling increasing government recognition in the crypto space.
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