Nilesh M Patel, Managing Director, Kashmik Formulation Pvt Ltd
Ahmedabad [Gujarat] [India] November 7: India’s impressive economic growth has positioned it as a global powerhouse with vast potential for the future. However, underlying challenges—such as Direct Tax Code reform, the shift to digital currency, banking sector vulnerabilities, and rising wealth inequality—could disrupt this trajectory if not carefully managed, posing risks of financial instability.
Direct Tax Code (DTC): While intended to simplify taxes, the DTC could temporarily disrupt revenue flows as taxpayers and businesses adjust. This adjustment period may impact government funding for vital infrastructure and social programs, potentially stalling economic momentum.
Shift to Digital Money: The rapid adoption of digital currency introduces complex risks to India’s financial stability. Digital currency can undermine the central bank’s ability to manage monetary policy effectively by limiting its control over money supply and interest rates, especially as people increasingly bypass traditional banking systems. Moreover, increased use of digital currency could reduce banking sector deposits, weakening its lending capacity and stability. Excessive dependence on digital currency might also lead to liquidity issues in cash-dependent sectors, destabilizing employment and consumption in the informal economy.
Banking Sector Vulnerabilities: India’s banking sector vulnerabilities compound these risks. High levels of non-performing assets (NPAs) and dependency on government bailouts among public sector banks signal systemic fragility. Additionally, the government’s support to two major industrialists with extensive investments in banking and infrastructure sectors heightens the risk. If either of these groups faces financial distress or bankruptcy, it could trigger a chain reaction affecting stock markets and leading to a sharp fall in real estate values, potentially causing a broader economic downturn.
Widening Wealth Inequality: Finally, widening wealth inequality poses a severe threat to social stability. According to a 2020 Oxfam report, the wealthiest 10% of Indians own over 77% of the country’s wealth, leaving the majority with limited economic mobility and purchasing power. Such inequality weakens domestic consumption and heightens the risk of social unrest.
Conclusion
To prevent a potential crisis, India must prioritize gradual DTC reforms, invest in cybersecurity, strengthen banking regulations, and promote inclusive growth policies. Proactively addressing these issues will be key to ensuring economic resilience and sustainable growth.
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